Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5002d8d565152bfe719ffb184ad91d341244b0285d2b09a60ca9b2c17925e66d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 7,846$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 1,470$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc129…feacbacked No | 74c | 674.79$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.79 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 542.4$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 27c | 421.51$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 54c | 415.48$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 44c | 407.06$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 353.79$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 252.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 247.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 232.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 220$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 21c | 218.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 213.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 199.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 23c | 190.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 10c | 184.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 26c | 177.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 45c | 164.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 159$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 73c | 151.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 150.26$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 146.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 59c | 137.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 133.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 124.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 16c | 124.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 41c | 122.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 104.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 101.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 17c | 100.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 51c | 98.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 96.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 59c | 93.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x316e…06c9backed Yes | 21c | 92.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 34c | 91.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 83.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 82.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 65c | 76.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 18c | 76.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 75.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 72.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed Yes | 21c | 65.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 65.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 65.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 22c | 62.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 22c | 60.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 60.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 60.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 23c | 57.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 22c | 50.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 64c | 48.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 34c | 48.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 45.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 78c | 45.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 54c | 44.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 66c | 43.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 41.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 39c | 33.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 55c | 31.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 30.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 55c | 30.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 28.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 48c | 27.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 58c | 23.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 22.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 71c | 21.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 53c | 21.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 68c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 66c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.