Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64872869b0f9803cae74fb7f6fde10c9492a4ac42db5f4127ab23c647b2ff852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 11,265$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.08 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 2,705$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,154$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.21 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 504.84$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.06 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 502.4$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 428.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 2,213 | 23.7%525 W · 1,688 L | +86.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 379.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 21c | 350$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 274 | 28.5%78 W · 196 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 290.34$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 28c | 277.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 274.28$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 260.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 1,144 | 24.7%283 W · 861 L | +26.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 26c | 231.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 223.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 26c | 190.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 185.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 156.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 370 | 34.6%128 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 117.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 106.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,087 | 51.9%564 W · 523 L | +75.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 78c | 104.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 586 | 58%340 W · 246 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 25c | 98.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 93.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 880 | 49.5%436 W · 444 L | -26.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 92.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 513 | 74.1%380 W · 133 L | +34.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 90.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 23c | 88.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 30c | 86.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 31c | 80.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 418 | 29.9%125 W · 293 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 71.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,124 | 55.4%623 W · 501 L | -29.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 30c | 70.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 419 | 33.2%139 W · 280 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,406 | 30.9%435 W · 971 L | -93.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 15c | 66.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 33c | 63.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 63.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 653 | 58.8%384 W · 269 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 62.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 62.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 34c | 59.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 27.1%54 W · 145 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 79c | 58.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 76c | 56.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes | 35c | 56.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 25c | 53.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 53.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 69c | 52.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -26.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…223abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 48.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 73c | 47.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 43.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 32c | 41.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 797 | 47.1%375 W · 422 L | -29.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 41.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 41.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 41.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 65c | 40.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 878 | 60.6%532 W · 346 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 455 | 66.2%301 W · 154 L | +20.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 73c | 29.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 73c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 67c | 20.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…d4c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 75c | 18.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.