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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c11,265$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.083,41131.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L-37.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes1c2,705$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.188,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c1,154$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.211,82942.6%780 W · 1,049 L+51.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No72c504.84$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.061,26652.8%668 W · 598 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No73c502.4$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.385,79560%3,479 W · 2,316 L-110.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes14c428.29$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.582,21323.7%525 W · 1,688 L+86.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes36c379.08$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.112,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes21c350$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5527428.5%78 W · 196 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No68c290.34$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.824,37753.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L-17.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…744abacked Yes28c277.42$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.712825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No70c274.28$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.11,32451.1%676 W · 648 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes31c260.79$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.41,14424.7%283 W · 861 L+26.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes26c231.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6037417.4%65 W · 309 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No78c223.18$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes26c190.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.435325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes18c185.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.895,54247.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L+81.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No79c156.3$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.44,30253.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L+157.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No69c144$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.642,41557.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes34c120$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.837034.6%128 W · 242 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No68c117.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8710,84837.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L+432.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c106.77$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.793,78265.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L+32.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes22c105$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31,08751.9%564 W · 523 L+75.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No78c104.08$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2580957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337331.5%23 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3519552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3458658%340 W · 246 L-2.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9117338.2%66 W · 107 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2423436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c99.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.26,85753.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L+417.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes25c99.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.034,90553.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L+33.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes25c98.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514244.4%63 W · 79 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes34c93.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6888049.5%436 W · 444 L-26.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No65c92.82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8251374.1%380 W · 133 L+34.3wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No78c90.81$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.911,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.034,61658.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L-114.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes23c88.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6919022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes30c86.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2642347.8%202 W · 221 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c85$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes31c80.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1841829.9%125 W · 293 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No69c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,30132.9%428 W · 873 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No70c71.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.441,12455.4%623 W · 501 L-29.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes30c70.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5741933.2%139 W · 280 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes22c68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.631,40630.9%435 W · 971 L-93.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb911…d6d0backed Yes15c66.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked No79c65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.848962.9%56 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes33c63.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.931936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c63.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.344,43565.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L+18.7wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No67c63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6265358.8%384 W · 269 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6326…773dbacked Yes26c63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.382070%14 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No67c62.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4994552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No66c62.05$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.053,62053.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L+81.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes34c59.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019927.1%54 W · 145 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No79c58.48$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2816272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No76c56.81$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6410857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes35c56.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes25c53.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5571649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c53.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8483360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No73c53.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.593,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes29c53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.142,26539.6%896 W · 1,369 L-56.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No69c52.62$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3150351.9%261 W · 242 L-26.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No78c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2223958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6b7…223abacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-86.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c48.08$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.55,20149.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L-161.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No73c47.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No75c47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751,43352.1%747 W · 686 L-21.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c43.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.279,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes32c41.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.479747.1%375 W · 422 L-29.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c41.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.682,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes26c41.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1187437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes33c41.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.536,11149.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L-116.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No65c40.09$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0354547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.825954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes31c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.413540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No67c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5687860.6%532 W · 346 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa109…7e42backed No68c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.411068.2%75 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.945566.2%301 W · 154 L+20.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No73c29.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0921264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No74c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2971464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf237…f6a5backed No73c26.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.343076.7%23 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…dd86backed No67c20.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.98564.7%55 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a18…d4c3backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No75c18.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5627056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.520358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.