Europa Conference League · resolved market
HNK Rijeka vs. Ilves Tampere: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba76cbd11de33f5e3810f59472cc3e21b5e6891dcb0e04dba55a6e42a9d829f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 41c | 2,801$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.91 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 2,216$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.16 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 1,820$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.92 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 50c | 852.79$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.32 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 797.89$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.88 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 55c | 552$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 500.59$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.35 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…9343backed Under | 40c | 493.81$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.43 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 58c | 475.59$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.84 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 45c | 431.62$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.39 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 404.97$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 63c | 229.24$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 65c | 131.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 33c | 118.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 67c | 118.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 116.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 47c | 110.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 47c | 92.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 47c | 92.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 47c | 89.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 47c | 73.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 55c | 60.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 60c | 60.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 45c | 56.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 42c | 55.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 42c | 54.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 47c | 21.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- HNK Rijeka vs. Ilves Tampere: O/U 2.5this page
- HNK Rijeka vs. Ilves Tampere: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Ilves Tampere: Ilves Tampere O/U 0.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Ilves Tampere: Ilves Tampere O/U 2.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Ilves Tampere: O/U 1.5Under won
- HNK Rijeka vs. Ilves Tampere: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)Ilves Tampere won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-2.5)Ilves Tampere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.