Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbf0ff06386a5d85a75c18fd09c7f6167262919c45b0a2b01baa7c4f7e5c59a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crystal Palace FCof Manchester United FC, Crystal Palace FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 11,900$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.28 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 5,000$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.9 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Manchester United FC | 21c | 2,833$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 1,238$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Manchester United FC | 18c | 999.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Manchester United FC | 17c | 996.19$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cf…3e8cbacked Manchester United FC | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Crystal Palace FC | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Manchester United FC | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 171$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…8206backed Manchester United FC | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…4df2backed Manchester United FC | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 113.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 253 | 48.2%122 W · 131 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…da0dbacked Manchester United FC | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed Manchester United FC | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 82.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Crystal Palace FC | 80c | 74.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546e…ec0cbacked Manchester United FC | 21c | 74.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Manchester United FC | 19c | 71.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…0ee4backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 66.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…d0d2backed Manchester United FC | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…c8d9backed Manchester United FC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Crystal Palace FC | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 189 | 63%119 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.