Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e63021a1e2225c447a85de4beb769a1e21b6259f29d2f750d78d0ddea515b54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 24,250$3,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,390.94 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 80c | 2,499$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.85 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 12c | 850.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 18c | 763$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 80c | 693.79$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.97 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 12c | 268.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 19c | 263.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 21c | 237.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…e32bbacked Under | 10c | 183.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 17c | 172.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 18c | 150.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Under | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 14c | 134.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 20c | 117.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 17c | 116.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 20c | 73.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 79c | 18.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…5715backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.