Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d670d63baf3e306f414b42f58713671aa61b14c513010d1c56e834078e30526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 18,102$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,751.82 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 17c | 4,213$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.02 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 70c | 3,451$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.78 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 3,187$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.35 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 20c | 2,472$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.81 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 19c | 1,249$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.33 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…d08bbacked Under | 74c | 1,035$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 18c | 763$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 857 | 48.5%416 W · 441 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167d…cf09backed Under | 79c | 629.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 579.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec2…3987backed Over | 2c | 575$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d35fbacked Under | 72c | 482.85$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Over | 5c | 471$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…5863backed Over | 23c | 329.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…ce1ebacked Over | 17c | 287.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Under | 73c | 275.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 31c | 275.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 19c | 249.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,240 | 42.2%523 W · 717 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Under | 72c | 149.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Under | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…d1a5backed Under | 74c | 119.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…baa7backed Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 18c | 98.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 101 | 12.9%13 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Over | 18c | 97.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Under | 72c | 79.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 29c | 72.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 724 | 42.7%309 W · 415 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 32c | 65.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…c8cebacked Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 22c | 44.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 36.6%59 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 77c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…b009backed Under | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Crystal Palace FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Crystal Palace FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.