TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Crystal Palace FCof Manchester United FC, Crystal Palace FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$399,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$397,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9c4…6f95backed Crystal Palace FC62c233,978$145,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,519.8716040.6%65 W · 95 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Manchester United FC38c52,000$19,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,7605246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Manchester United FC37c48,736$18,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,146.016,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Manchester United FC38c47,618$18,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,095.014841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Manchester United FC38c15,007$5,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,702.825658.9%33 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Manchester United FC37c14,288$5,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,355.5721253.8%114 W · 98 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Manchester United FC38c13,158$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002532%8 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Manchester United FC38c7,993$3,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,048.141,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Manchester United FC38c7,895$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.3712949.6%64 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Manchester United FC39c6,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3404641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Manchester United FC38c6,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.991855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Crystal Palace FC61c5,700$3,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,22310962.4%68 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc740…217ebacked Manchester United FC40c5,575$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,202.792035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Manchester United FC47c5,500$2,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5858153.1%43 W · 38 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Manchester United FC38c5,400$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.8128242.2%119 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Manchester United FC38c4,756$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.832,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Crystal Palace FC62c4,500$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7109256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Manchester United FC39c4,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56018362.3%114 W · 69 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Manchester United FC35c3,759$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30035134.8%122 W · 229 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester United FC37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.9945936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Crystal Palace FC61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.987251.4%37 W · 35 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Crystal Palace FC62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.8850644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Manchester United FC39c2,821$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Crystal Palace FC62c2,500$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.8152454.2%284 W · 240 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9663…0399backed Manchester United FC39c2,100$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d1…109bbacked Crystal Palace FC61c2,053$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Manchester United FC50c2,018$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Crystal Palace FC61c1,944$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.494,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb6…8977backed Crystal Palace FC61c1,802$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f63…57b9backed Manchester United FC39c1,749$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Crystal Palace FC61c1,627$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.3351750.1%259 W · 258 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94ad…6880backed Manchester United FC38c1,620$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Manchester United FC39c1,573$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.4710838.9%42 W · 66 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Manchester United FC39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58518646.8%87 W · 99 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Manchester United FC28c1,404$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.896333.3%21 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Crystal Palace FC61c1,211$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.162,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa78b…d26dbacked Manchester United FC38c1,120$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Manchester United FC55c1,100$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6054240.5%17 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Manchester United FC38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38049254.9%270 W · 222 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Crystal Palace FC62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38032158.9%189 W · 132 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed Crystal Palace FC62c999.98$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.9910743%46 W · 61 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Manchester United FC38c914$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.3245751.2%234 W · 223 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0da6…5d0cbacked Crystal Palace FC63c820$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef67…d6c9backed Crystal Palace FC63c800$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6632…6dc2backed Manchester United FC38c605$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Manchester United FC37c600$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22223258.2%135 W · 97 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb226…4469backed Crystal Palace FC62c541.66$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.026847.1%32 W · 36 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Manchester United FC38c530$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.430059.7%179 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Manchester United FC38c450$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1739330.1%28 W · 65 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Manchester United FC39c449.37$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8216357.1%93 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Manchester United FC47c421.29$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.422045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Crystal Palace FC63c398$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.265064%32 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Manchester United FC23c347.83$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803650%18 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Manchester United FC44c333.81$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14626344.9%118 W · 145 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Manchester United FC37c330.33$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1949753.7%267 W · 230 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Crystal Palace FC62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5810847.2%51 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Manchester United FC38c289.47$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Manchester United FC33c282.8$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.541,66234.9%580 W · 1,082 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Manchester United FC39c276$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4530143.9%132 W · 169 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c1c…772ebacked Manchester United FC40c274.88$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Manchester United FC38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017053.5%91 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4948…08bdbacked Manchester United FC39c258.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Manchester United FC39c254.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63fc…1732backed Manchester United FC40c251.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d87…2807backed Crystal Palace FC80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51aa…10dabacked Manchester United FC40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Manchester United FC38c250$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9596443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Manchester United FC38c250$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951,07445%483 W · 591 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Manchester United FC38c249.97$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.991,22442.3%518 W · 706 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Crystal Palace FC59c223.68$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7142048.6%204 W · 216 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Manchester United FC40c220$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8827227.9%76 W · 196 L-1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd6a…6f9fbacked Manchester United FC5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8c…b99bbacked Manchester United FC38c190.12$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.241631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6325…cfaabacked Crystal Palace FC60c185.9$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.051741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Crystal Palace FC62c183.8$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.923250.9%118 W · 114 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Manchester United FC36c173.43$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4482763%521 W · 306 L+113.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Manchester United FC38c171.05$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6513550.4%68 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Crystal Palace FC62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2922242.8%95 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Crystal Palace FC62c161$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1872249.9%360 W · 362 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Manchester United FC31c160.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4916045.6%73 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa665…4234backed Crystal Palace FC62c159.17$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe86…6763backed Crystal Palace FC63c158.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.511729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Manchester United FC41c143.45$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.351,93442.4%820 W · 1,114 L-43.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Crystal Palace FC51c137.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2366031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a1…c566backed Manchester United FC39c136$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Manchester United FC38c132.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3235743.1%154 W · 203 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…edcabacked Manchester United FC38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017048.8%83 W · 87 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Manchester United FC39c130.01$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.596750.7%34 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Manchester United FC38c128$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.641,26433.7%426 W · 838 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Manchester United FC41c127.59$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.316737.3%25 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Manchester United FC38c126.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4824844.4%110 W · 138 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdced…8a25backed Crystal Palace FC63c126.25$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.71757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2bd7…88e6backed Manchester United FC16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Manchester United FC51c124.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9719441.8%81 W · 113 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Manchester United FC27c117.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2840821.8%89 W · 319 L-53.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-49.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xbfa0…7191backed Manchester United FC37c115.64$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.791952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Manchester United FC30c115$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5320956%117 W · 92 L+15.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+24.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Crystal Palace FC65c108.1$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.754658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Manchester United FC38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016558.8%97 W · 68 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5d3…91aabacked Manchester United FC39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-52.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.