TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$593,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$584,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,027 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777d…5143backed Over49c453,231$221,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,801.238856.8%50 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under51c399,639$205,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,812.2841149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over48c63,000$30,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,759.987441.9%31 W · 43 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under52c44,696$23,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,287.984052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Under52c21,225$11,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,037.1650153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under49c18,684$9,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,1551,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under51c12,047$6,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,124.261,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c9,970$4,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,935.165050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Under58c7,311$4,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,239.8818241.2%75 W · 107 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c6,458$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,195.2746547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under51c5,900$3,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,006.596,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over48c5,812$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,021.991,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over48c4,444$2,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.7767250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Over47c4,189$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.0915148.3%73 W · 78 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over42c3,927$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.7210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under52c3,885$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.121748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Under52c2,914$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.0761947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under52c2,389$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.221,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under52c2,389$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.221,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under52c2,389$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.221,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under49c2,040$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.61,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ac…61e8backed Under52c1,942$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.052263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under52c1,474$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.2539351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over48c1,418$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.3675049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under50c1,323$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.542,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7c…7a19backed Over49c999.98$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.9911749.6%58 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Over50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4851275%9 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over43c941.21$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.239,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef1…c0debacked Over49c558.25$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.713956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…72ebbacked Under52c542.4$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.054231%13 W · 29 L-6.8wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-42.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under52c542.4$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0528646.2%132 W · 154 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Under51c382.3$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9750%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1030…dd7abacked Under52c373.54$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.248246.3%38 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbfb…e01fbacked Under52c373.54$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.241353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under30c334.1$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Over49c237.59$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.273751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Under52c208.81$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5811450.9%58 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under50c208$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5788…fb06backed Over48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.954100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+122.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011647.4%55 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Under52c194.24$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10159150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe226…95a5backed Over50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under52c175.71$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3724348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1e…63bbbacked Under60c162.67$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.61442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Under52c142.77$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2435650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked Over42c138.5$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.444957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under50c124.21$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.116647%31 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under49c123.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6119248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over48c122.13$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5114444.4%64 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under22c107.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.71,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x387b…fd56backed Under53c105.63$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.71741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under52c96.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.936355.6%35 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Under52c93.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.562540%10 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick52cpaid+76.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked Over69c85.05$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c81…2a9fbacked Over49c82.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Under52c74.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8513549.6%67 W · 68 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0da3…1b45backed Under52c56.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.142055%11 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f57…086dbacked Over49c55.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Under52c48.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520955.5%116 W · 93 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfe7…8daabacked Over40c48.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.733100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+178.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under52c46.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2829450.7%149 W · 145 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Over48c46.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1314442.4%61 W · 83 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under45c40.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3813742.3%58 W · 79 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cbd…d50fbacked Over48c39.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.57475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+99.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc31e…a0dcbacked Over50c38.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.41553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52cd…8430backed Under51c38.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.411145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe4c…ebeabacked Over50c37.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Under52c37.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4244347.9%212 W · 231 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba3…0e28backed Over49c35.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b1…6399backed Over49c32.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.65785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+69.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over48c30.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9950949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under50c30.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.286440.6%26 W · 38 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Under52c28.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.579146.2%42 W · 49 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed5a…9c8bbacked Under52c28.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe813…3d19backed Under52c27.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03eb…47b0backed Over50c27.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.851838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c9…a454backed Under51c24.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.459942.4%42 W · 57 L-10.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90cb…4622backed Under56c24.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.633360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Under51c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.245839.7%23 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Under52c22.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6521746.5%101 W · 116 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02c0…d718backed Over49c22.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.26683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+80.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over60c21.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.877752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdee1…ff2cbacked Under52c20.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under54c20.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.971,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under52c19.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.186653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.