Premier League · resolved market
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc2d394252b46fface8f7af76571b412e139307c9f134a95a0c0a730368c5962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 47,378$6,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,997.35 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Over | 25c | 6,002$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.2 | 197 | 29.4%58 W · 139 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 21c | 876.25$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 64c | 806.25$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 16c | 591.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Over | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 12c | 502.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.86 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed Over | 78c | 464.2$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Over | 14c | 268.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 24c | 198.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 209 | 31.6%66 W · 143 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 126.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd716…bad1backed Over | 34c | 97.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 22c | 81.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 45c | 73.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…8797backed Over | 33c | 60.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Over | 24c | 49.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 170 | 17.6%30 W · 140 L | -27.5wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 41c | 49.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…67a5backed Over | 30c | 46.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 74c | 45.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.