Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc4d36ff2f77ff30e95fd17ef44eafb712a95cf0b340d548ebee70499e354b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 44,855$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.42 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 5c | 22,090$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.9 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Yes | 5c | 4,610$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 237 | 36.3%86 W · 151 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9254…3af8backed Yes | 4c | 4,583$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 172 | 11%19 W · 153 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,263$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…3f67backed Yes | 4c | 3,270$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 116 | 16.4%19 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…106cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…c45abacked Yes | 4c | 2,251$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 287 | 16.4%47 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 5c | 2,127$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,206 | 32.7%394 W · 812 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…6e87backed Yes | 5c | 2,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 8.6%7 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07c…11a0backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…20d0backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,667$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 99 | 7.1%7 W · 92 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…8232backed Yes | 4c | 1,578$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 255 | 10.6%27 W · 228 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…f102backed Yes | 4c | 1,458$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 564 | 10.5%59 W · 505 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed8…7c2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,333$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 485 | 26.8%130 W · 355 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…fe32backed Yes | 7c | 1,248$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 290 | 18.6%54 W · 236 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,228$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 211 | 33.2%70 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Yes | 5c | 1,156$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…8115backed Yes | 5c | 1,156$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 229 | 14%32 W · 197 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c42…82debacked Yes | 5c | 1,111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b4…0d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,092$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…9404backed Yes | 5c | 1,087$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 19.1%30 W · 127 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…fe53backed Yes | 5c | 1,044$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,012$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…42ccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 356 | 21.9%78 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c5…564fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…cf16backed Yes | 5c | 869.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 626 | 6.7%42 W · 584 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac9…92d3backed Yes | 5c | 851.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 226 | 22.1%50 W · 176 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 245 | 41.2%101 W · 144 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…f693backed Yes | 1c | 798$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 5c | 659.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…12f5backed Yes | 4c | 645$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 698 | 26.1%182 W · 516 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…6a1dbacked Yes | 5c | 530$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 335 | 10.1%34 W · 301 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…0d6abacked Yes | 5c | 520.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…238abacked Yes | 5c | 520.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 20.8%37 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc7…7fbabacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 2.4%2 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5718…d232backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 13.8%22 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea4…9d9abacked Yes | 3c | 488.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Yes | 4c | 465.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 27.5%75 W · 198 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c6…1462backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 311 | 19.3%60 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 502 | 14.5%73 W · 429 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…eec4backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 5c | 391.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 250 | 18.4%46 W · 204 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1158…0dc0backed Yes | 5c | 391.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…befbbacked Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…9bddbacked Yes | 4c | 366.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 626 | 33.9%212 W · 414 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 4c | 357.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 12.2%11 W · 79 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 4c | 341.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 277 | 29.2%81 W · 196 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7696…2639backed Yes | 4c | 333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 5c | 319.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 756 | 30.4%230 W · 526 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…cc7bbacked Yes | 5c | 319.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…8f97backed Yes | 5c | 319.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4754…d715backed Yes | 5c | 319.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca9…0c3fbacked Yes | 3c | 313.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…9f1dbacked Yes | 5c | 312.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Yes | 5c | 294.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 28.7%47 W · 117 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa0…17e8backed Yes | 5c | 270.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 5c | 255.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 783 | 17.4%136 W · 647 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 251.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 96 | 7.3%7 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…6359backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 11.4%13 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…4b75backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…bcc0backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…7d7abacked Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 6.6%4 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…ff92backed Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…1d36backed Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…4357backed Yes | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…12b9backed Yes | 4c | 234.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…64fbbacked Yes | 5c | 234.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa202…9b12backed Yes | 6c | 200.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…885cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…bf74backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 23.7%28 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923a…e723backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…69afbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 28.3%51 W · 129 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2f…5468backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 8.9%14 W · 143 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…10b4backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 724 | 24.7%179 W · 545 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…0664backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf90…99bbbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco?Yes won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco?No won
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.