NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc5191e021311aeb3985f0bcf081329964c8c50177946252803f6e85025fcece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9de9…ee25backed Under | 20c | 1,110$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.03 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 18c | 858.92$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…9856backed Under | 22c | 573.56$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…3badbacked Over | 78c | 484.62$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 8c | 377.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 21c | 302.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 77c | 294.52$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…24e3backed Under | 23c | 285.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…ba67backed Over | 80c | 200.94$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 16c | 129.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 20c | 125.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Under | 23c | 109.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f63…642dbacked Over | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 80c | 37.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Over | 80c | 26.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…a188backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5this page
- Avalanche vs. Golden KnightsGolden Knights won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.