Mls · resolved market
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcfda6958f4a8ee20e8d1e4ceec85181a3473a0382b2099e1e54244c4edb0bc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York City FCof Vancouver Whitecaps FC, New York City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 21c | 3,177$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.51 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York City FC | 79c | 2,570$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.56 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe2…2c56backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 26c | 514.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed New York City FC | 74c | 212.7$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed New York City FC | 74c | 212.7$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 16c | 176$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 24c | 166.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed New York City FC | 20c | 143.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked New York City FC | 76c | 121.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked New York City FC | 75c | 91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed New York City FC | 74c | 67.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked New York City FC | 76c | 28.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked New York City FC | 76c | 23.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…1e75backed New York City FC | 73c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)this page
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)Vancouver Whitecaps FC won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.