TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South America Rejectsof Nigma Galaxy, South America Rejects
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,236 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf054…eae7backed Nigma Galaxy34c5,400$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.1712557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Nigma Galaxy49c5,113$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked South America Rejects64c4,677$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,676.7139343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Nigma Galaxy40c4,579$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.6234468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Nigma Galaxy36c4,091$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed South America Rejects51c3,886$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.2641056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed South America Rejects48c3,746$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.451,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Nigma Galaxy8c3,554$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.3847046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed South America Rejects54c3,250$1,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.8140051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Nigma Galaxy51c2,400$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22456852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Nigma Galaxy51c2,343$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2009630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Nigma Galaxy55c2,219$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2195137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed South America Rejects49c2,200$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12211742.7%50 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy35c2,088$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.212,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed South America Rejects49c1,667$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy9c1,074$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.322,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed South America Rejects60c1,054$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.6715650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed South America Rejects46c1,012$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.341,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Nigma Galaxy1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011239.3%44 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Nigma Galaxy51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.6541055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed South America Rejects52c860.01$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.0155457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked South America Rejects61c707.23$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.1853139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Nigma Galaxy47c589.41$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.0295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked South America Rejects46c560.42$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.6332652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked South America Rejects50c560$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.815342.5%65 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed South America Rejects59c512.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.416657.6%38 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed South America Rejects47c511.74$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.2212350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed South America Rejects43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28565441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Nigma Galaxy51c490.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked South America Rejects49c475.91$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.9142145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked South America Rejects43c405.68$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.8856243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Nigma Galaxy12c403.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Nigma Galaxy11c400$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4525639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy28c397.52$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.622,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Nigma Galaxy34c349.98$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.46141%25 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed South America Rejects75c333.33$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9921062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked South America Rejects64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10888166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Nigma Galaxy12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3615457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed South America Rejects58c276.02$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9334154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed Nigma Galaxy40c248.3$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.524955.4%138 W · 111 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy23c219.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.281,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked South America Rejects67c203.81$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.261,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Nigma Galaxy36c200.08$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7322461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nigma Galaxy34c192.46$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2767043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Nigma Galaxy35c192.23$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.281747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20df…c787backed Nigma Galaxy6c180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed South America Rejects51c175$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.451,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc301…6760backed Nigma Galaxy11c172.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked South America Rejects68c170$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed South America Rejects64c150.68$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5627357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Nigma Galaxy36c148.16$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.755964.4%38 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Nigma Galaxy49c141.06$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1230647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c22…0c2cbacked Nigma Galaxy40c124.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdde9…f432backed Nigma Galaxy36c124.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Nigma Galaxy44c113.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy40c102.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.921,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8ff2…8ea1backed Nigma Galaxy49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Nigma Galaxy11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1145052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked South America Rejects46c90$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.670236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Nigma Galaxy36c86.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0350444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Nigma Galaxy49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4058250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked South America Rejects59c81.43$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Nigma Galaxy49c80.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7641244.7%184 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked South America Rejects49c80.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9741944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Nigma Galaxy17c76.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1372637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8928…2fe5backed Nigma Galaxy54c71.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.481020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-67.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed South America Rejects41c63.4$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.47541.3%31 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Nigma Galaxy48c53.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2672035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Nigma Galaxy54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2733445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb308…23a6backed Nigma Galaxy51c49.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516939.6%67 W · 102 L-15.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9332…a3dbbacked Nigma Galaxy42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2076048.6%369 W · 391 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa11c…e96fbacked South America Rejects62c46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.481973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked South America Rejects49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8252649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaed7…baa3backed Nigma Galaxy56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031648.7%154 W · 162 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked South America Rejects60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3346872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4954…ac42backed Nigma Galaxy47c29.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.882450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c04…2c55backed South America Rejects49c25.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.014346.5%20 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.