TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South America Rejectsof Nigma Galaxy, South America Rejects
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,922 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05a7…42e6backed South America Rejects53c7,413$3,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,520.0941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy55c7,401$4,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,047.541,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed South America Rejects52c7,181$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,470.471,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed South America Rejects56c6,981$3,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.4612557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy41c5,409$2,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,228.082,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked South America Rejects53c4,200$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.9680256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nigma Galaxy38c3,241$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.9996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed South America Rejects50c3,095$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.5540051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Nigma Galaxy50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50096557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Nigma Galaxy44c2,300$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01211742.7%50 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nigma Galaxy23c2,106$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.681,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f47…d0a3backed Nigma Galaxy1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Nigma Galaxy46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62a9…3bb6backed Nigma Galaxy51c1,954$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.710546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Nigma Galaxy51c1,952$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.3771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed South America Rejects64c1,641$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.172157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy47c1,628$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.912,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked South America Rejects53c1,413$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.165863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed South America Rejects51c1,279$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.5755457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked South America Rejects44c1,148$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.3353139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Nigma Galaxy47c1,117$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.9913854.3%75 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Nigma Galaxy51c1,062$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.6115650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Nigma Galaxy47c1,048$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.1544645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Nigma Galaxy44c1,024$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.5895342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked South America Rejects50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50041055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked South America Rejects45c999.98$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.9917954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Nigma Galaxy50c994$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49737945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Nigma Galaxy47c913.27$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.246842.6%29 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Nigma Galaxy47c913.27$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.244652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Nigma Galaxy47c900.42$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.269644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Nigma Galaxy47c860.92$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40522340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked South America Rejects54c765.41$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.4142145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked South America Rejects49c718.46$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.4139660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Nigma Galaxy50c655.1$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32523459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Nigma Galaxy36c640$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.26141%25 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Nigma Galaxy59c625.4$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37014157.4%81 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Nigma Galaxy48c625.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011753%62 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed South America Rejects56c579$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.0860251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Nigma Galaxy49c519.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.215342.5%65 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy47c478.72$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked South America Rejects50c470$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.2455251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed South America Rejects52c466.24$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.338946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed South America Rejects45c426$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.532055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Nigma Galaxy49c422.55$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9134154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc623…9c7dbacked South America Rejects49c411.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.3836761%224 W · 143 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Nigma Galaxy52c400$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20788166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x810b…0848backed South America Rejects51c397.61$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.8713144.3%58 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Nigma Galaxy54c390.37$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.230534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed South America Rejects70c390$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0329466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Nigma Galaxy6c380.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.414744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed South America Rejects50c379.66$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.256657.6%38 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed South America Rejects46c379.13$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.922,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Nigma Galaxy42c369.98$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.1965441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a75…fc33backed Nigma Galaxy31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked South America Rejects53c321.53$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.5318952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Nigma Galaxy51c320.79$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2115244.7%68 W · 84 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked South America Rejects55c306.78$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4261456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed South America Rejects49c299.95$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.8396245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Nigma Galaxy50c265.83$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1530647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed South America Rejects47c261.54$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.6254246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Nigma Galaxy47c249.95$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9436851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Nigma Galaxy57c245.61$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14061057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c9…29e5backed Nigma Galaxy55c241.54$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.852548%12 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed South America Rejects59c235.56$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9347046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde9…f432backed South America Rejects53c216.96$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.747750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nigma Galaxy49c213.56$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9367043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed South America Rejects48c210.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1746049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked South America Rejects48c208.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8432652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy31c207.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.061,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Nigma Galaxy43c204.97$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.361,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c22…0c2cbacked Nigma Galaxy30c201.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Nigma Galaxy15c200.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6956343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8928…2fe5backed Nigma Galaxy50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-67.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Nigma Galaxy47c199.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaed7…baa3backed Nigma Galaxy10c187.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7731648.7%154 W · 162 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed South America Rejects55c181.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7911239.3%44 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe996…3836backed South America Rejects77c180.37$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.661687.5%14 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+33%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked South America Rejects53c177.79$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.061,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed South America Rejects53c156.3$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4621062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed South America Rejects61c152$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.851364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…485bbacked Nigma Galaxy10c147.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed South America Rejects52c144.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0622868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Nigma Galaxy49c142.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed South America Rejects52c130$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.977941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f9e…10c8backed Nigma Galaxy9c130$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.77149.3%35 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7c…c4c5backed South America Rejects54c128.8$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.84656.5%26 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4f…c208backed Nigma Galaxy50c125$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nigma Galaxy41c119.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.021,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x312f…913cbacked South America Rejects53c112$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.441952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Nigma Galaxy48c111$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.198258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb60…39d9backed Nigma Galaxy49c109.54$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed South America Rejects49c106.12$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1230834.1%105 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Nigma Galaxy48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4825639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Nigma Galaxy47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4758250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked South America Rejects63c99.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa11c…e96fbacked South America Rejects49c93$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.431973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa00d…a365backed South America Rejects60c90.16$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Nigma Galaxy48c84.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3925147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x853c…08e5backed Nigma Galaxy44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-73%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.