TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South America Rejectsof Nigma Galaxy, South America Rejects
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,262
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,262 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed South America Rejects49c16,308$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,308.011,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Nigma Galaxy51c10,364$5,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,285.8636041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Nigma Galaxy19c5,398$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Nigma Galaxy55c4,738$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,608.8320367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked South America Rejects68c2,654$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.922842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Nigma Galaxy51c2,100$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.9911742.7%50 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Nigma Galaxy14c1,752$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Nigma Galaxy25c1,457$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.2247046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Nigma Galaxy34c1,432$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4872227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed South America Rejects50c1,365$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.716657.6%38 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Nigma Galaxy50c1,289$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.58875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5051…82a6backed South America Rejects50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.4820452.5%107 W · 97 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked South America Rejects80c1,145$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.7296645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked South America Rejects50c1,069$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.6453139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed South America Rejects48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.449754.6%53 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Nigma Galaxy41c1,003$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.1134154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Nigma Galaxy52c981.97$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.6356243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Nigma Galaxy35c820.64$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Nigma Galaxy51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4088137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed South America Rejects65c769.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.235952.5%31 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Nigma Galaxy33c753.36$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.5934561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed South America Rejects64c594.94$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.9422461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc10d…e679backed Nigma Galaxy52c584$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Nigma Galaxy50c555$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.517248.3%83 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed South America Rejects45c553.88$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.6322363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked South America Rejects49c550$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.512642.1%53 W · 73 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed South America Rejects48c508.11$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.6267555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Nigma Galaxy51c504.98$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.5437745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked South America Rejects49c503.66$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.5717954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Nigma Galaxy51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2556141%25 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed South America Rejects50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25023347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Nigma Galaxy9c499.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.822015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed South America Rejects72c442.11$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.632,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Nigma Galaxy52c416.47$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.5612536%45 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Nigma Galaxy51c399.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20496942.8%415 W · 554 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Nigma Galaxy52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20059154%319 W · 272 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Nigma Galaxy25c373.92$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed Nigma Galaxy10c349.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5220535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed South America Rejects70c346$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.882479.2%19 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+40.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Nigma Galaxy51c334.2$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1619857.1%113 W · 85 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cdf…1d29backed Nigma Galaxy55c329.14$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.551631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b37…17bdbacked Nigma Galaxy15c324.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506434.4%22 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Nigma Galaxy33c304.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked South America Rejects78c300.57$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.661,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff6…d07ebacked Nigma Galaxy34c294.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.27540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed South America Rejects46c268.57$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.039935.4%35 W · 64 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked South America Rejects42c232.04$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.542,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Nigma Galaxy50c230$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1154436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Nigma Galaxy12c229.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Nigma Galaxy52c227.97$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4223342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1937…4520backed Nigma Galaxy52c226.92$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f7…71d2backed South America Rejects46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed South America Rejects48c214.5$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.2244645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Nigma Galaxy50c211.33$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6741944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed South America Rejects50c201.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8251550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e57…831dbacked South America Rejects69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622650%13 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Nigma Galaxy51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10222752.9%120 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Nigma Galaxy39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7861548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Nigma Galaxy53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…0a76backed Nigma Galaxy33c181.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0550%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Nigma Galaxy34c174.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3927357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b1b…3d70backed South America Rejects47c171.19$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.73955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d6…8267backed South America Rejects59c168.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.851471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy40c154.45$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.852,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Nigma Galaxy13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010850%54 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc623…9c7dbacked South America Rejects65c153.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0136761%224 W · 143 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked South America Rejects49c151.54$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.571457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94e5…52bebacked South America Rejects69c144.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.771361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+53.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed South America Rejects69c143.87$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.814648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Nigma Galaxy54c142.37$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.84951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e3…99a1backed Nigma Galaxy53c141.49$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.993354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Nigma Galaxy53c141.47$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c8…3469backed Nigma Galaxy36c138.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021551.6%111 W · 104 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Nigma Galaxy37c132.18$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.971,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78c3…9d16backed Nigma Galaxy53c127.32$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed South America Rejects61c127.07$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0711541.7%48 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked South America Rejects50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6025348.6%123 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Nigma Galaxy10c119.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241244.7%184 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9733…f01dbacked Nigma Galaxy53c113.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ee…ef19backed South America Rejects72c111.61$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed South America Rejects80c110.35$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0731736%114 W · 203 L-18.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20df…c787backed Nigma Galaxy30c110$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed South America Rejects48c109.48$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2371142.6%303 W · 408 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3375…ba50backed South America Rejects64c109.12$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.475154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710b…93b0backed South America Rejects62c107.85$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0712260.7%74 W · 48 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Nigma Galaxy34c105.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.233945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…688dbacked Nigma Galaxy53c104.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked South America Rejects49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0435361.2%216 W · 137 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Nigma Galaxy22c101.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.753941%16 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Nigma Galaxy39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3925039.6%99 W · 151 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaed7…baa3backed Nigma Galaxy50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031648.7%154 W · 162 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Nigma Galaxy12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.530834.1%105 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Nigma Galaxy11c93.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4550353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58fc…77edbacked South America Rejects56c88.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.991181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick56cpaid+62%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf740…cf50backed South America Rejects69c71.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.017856.4%44 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nigma Galaxy33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Nigma Galaxy22c68.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1572035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe452…4de3backed Nigma Galaxy52c67.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4802…c8e1backed South America Rejects76c66.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0618063.9%115 W · 65 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42e…59e1backed Nigma Galaxy39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.