Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UCF Knights (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd7f192b4bfd6884dce742fa579938df40f886bc061195ef2855c68ab73dcfc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Bearcatsof UCF Knights, Cincinnati Bearcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $693,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $693,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $693,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 49c | 670,055$328,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341,358.18 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked UCF Knights | 51c | 198,887$101,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,432.3 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked UCF Knights | 51c | 150,000$76,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,500 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed UCF Knights | 51c | 125,000$63,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,750 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed UCF Knights | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked UCF Knights | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…15b1backed UCF Knights | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,650 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked UCF Knights | 51c | 13,000$6,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,630 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9c…74b3backed UCF Knights | 50c | 12,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 49c | 6,071$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,068.65 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 4,254$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed UCF Knights | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed UCF Knights | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked UCF Knights | 53c | 3,546$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.38 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked UCF Knights | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed UCF Knights | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 1,063$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.5 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed UCF Knights | 51c | 1,021$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed UCF Knights | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed UCF Knights | 52c | 912.15$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.49 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UCF Knights | 52c | 675.46$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.11 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed UCF Knights | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UCF Knights | 53c | 489.89$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.96 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked UCF Knights | 51c | 359.29$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.24 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb248…3652backed UCF Knights | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed UCF Knights | 52c | 119.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UCF Knights | 53c | 101.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…d3b6backed UCF Knights | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…eb4fbacked UCF Knights | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed UCF Knights | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed UCF Knights | 52c | 91.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed UCF Knights | 52c | 86.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 48c | 69.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed UCF Knights | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed UCF Knights | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed UCF Knights | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed UCF Knights | 52c | 38.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a53dbacked UCF Knights | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…822dbacked UCF Knights | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed UCF Knights | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…3a4abacked UCF Knights | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked UCF Knights | 52c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UCF Knights (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF KnightsUCF Knights won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 149.5Under won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 150.5Under won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: UCF Knights (-3.5)Cincinnati Bearcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.