Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UCF Knights (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde31a0974a81cd0e167445493bd35dfdc31a39b03c80a1bf8abeb282a68a1134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Bearcatsof UCF Knights, Cincinnati Bearcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 53c | 22,746$12,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,697.79 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UCF Knights | 47c | 11,020$5,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,226.99 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked UCF Knights | 47c | 10,011$4,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,704.94 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked UCF Knights | 47c | 10,002$4,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700.72 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 5,000$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,405.31 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed UCF Knights | 50c | 4,960$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,467.66 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 53c | 3,290$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.51 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed UCF Knights | 47c | 2,979$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.09 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked UCF Knights | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed UCF Knights | 11c | 1,240$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UCF Knights | 47c | 504$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.88 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 48c | 408$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.16 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked UCF Knights | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed UCF Knights | 48c | 241.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked UCF Knights | 46c | 220.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 49c | 183.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed UCF Knights | 52c | 123.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 222 | 50.9%113 W · 109 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UCF Knights | 49c | 118.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UCF Knights | 49c | 116.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked UCF Knights | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 59c | 93.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked UCF Knights | 44c | 81.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed UCF Knights | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…8323backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 63.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed UCF Knights | 46c | 62.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed UCF Knights | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked UCF Knights | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked UCF Knights | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked UCF Knights | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…822dbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 52c | 33.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 55c | 32.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 28.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…3d2bbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 72c | 27.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 59c | 18.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UCF Knights (-3.5)this page
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF KnightsUCF Knights won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 149.5Under won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 150.5Under won
- Cincinnati Bearcats vs. UCF Knights: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: UCF Knights (-2.5)Cincinnati Bearcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.