MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbda335515593f2a340af202f920b9672c4e1d9be119ad793aed2ed8f0ddf8692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 9,993$4,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,695.97 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 57c | 8,194$4,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,673.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 59c | 7,208$4,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,237.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed Houston Astros | 63c | 3,300$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 3,085$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 2,306$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 2,215$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.64 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 2,209$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.81 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 2,016$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 1,848$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Houston Astros | 51c | 1,270$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.94 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 819.92$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Houston Astros | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Houston Astros | 63c | 390$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 305$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 59c | 299$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 171.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 157.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.34 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…59f1backed Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 150.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 144.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Houston Astros | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Houston Astros | 53c | 117.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Houston Astros | 52c | 116.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 111.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Houston Astros | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 104.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Baltimore Orioles | 19c | 97.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 94.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Houston Astros | 74c | 72.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 68.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 64.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 64.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Houston Astros | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…352fbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Houston Astros | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 59.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 59.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Houston Astros | 73c | 56.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Houston Astros | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 43.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 41.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Houston Astros | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ead…f0fbbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 38.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 36.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Houston Astros | 60c | 30.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 70c | 27.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 62c | 21.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Houston Astros | 61c | 18.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston AstrosBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.