MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbddeab709eee0ad870a36047f673c81fa0d82a18112e57fcc8b887402f01daff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 56c | 34,665$19,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,273.57 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 10,914$4,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,801.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 4,628$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 4,255$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 4,016$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 3,078$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 2,777$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.75 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 43c | 1,618$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.92 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 1,292$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 58c | 1,230$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.6 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 44c | 890.48$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.81 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 780$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.2 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 55c | 550$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 44c | 488$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.72 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 484.88$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 43c | 456.1$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.26 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 38c | 437.5$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Over | 45c | 421$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 44c | 414.58$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.42 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 384.94$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 53c | 358.4$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.09 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 56c | 267.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 152.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 56c | 113.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 21c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 90.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 89.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 55c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 48c | 73.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 45c | 65.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Over | 44c | 56.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…e26ebacked Over | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…1c47backed Over | 54c | 46.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 45c | 42.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 53c | 35.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…6d56backed Under | 53c | 28.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 28.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 44c | 25.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 62c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.