Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe46ef86a4f50b8ff6484b79aa2400f0301256f52ffd0bce777dd204c1dfb26a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 23c | 909$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 77c | 788$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…b87abacked Yes | 30c | 777.75$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +1,330.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41db…bba6backed Yes | 18c | 225.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 13c | 192.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 11c | 170.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 67c | 166.71$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 77c | 121$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 74c | 120.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6174…ca45backed No | 79c | 108.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +78%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 78c | 92.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd756…a65abacked Yes | 20c | 56.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa7…a453backed Yes | 22c | 51.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 74c | 41.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 79c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 80c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.