TailMyPicks
Market

Stocks · resolved market

Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $230-$235 in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,886 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x969f…4d55backed Yes44c835.85$366 inWon+$469.511,11243.7%486 W · 626 L+25.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes67c679.53$459 inWon+$220.8635151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes15c627.05$92 inWon+$535.3681240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes11c518$55 inWon+$462.613941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00de…9c2ebacked Yes72c411.3$297 inWon+$114.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d1…a8eebacked Yes14c256$36 inWon+$220.412853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c209.67$127 inLost-$126.8586338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No22c200$43 inLost-$439026.7%24 W · 66 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No24c166$40 inLost-$39.744452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc347…97bdbacked Yes69c130.43$90 inWon+$40.43540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-44.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No26c128.37$34 inLost-$33.835964.4%38 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No37c127.59$48 inLost-$47.52633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No29c125.41$37 inLost-$3721820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes14c124.15$18 inWon+$106.3622129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No36c108.8$39 inLost-$38.999124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes10c101$10 inWon+$90.91505.3%8 W · 142 L+0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0764…2e43backed Yes65c76.92$50 inWon+$26.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes36c71.41$26 inWon+$45.8824356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d66…0e16backed Yes53c56.81$30 inWon+$26.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b4…4e6ebacked Yes59c50.46$30 inWon+$20.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No58c50$29 inLost-$297332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No73c50$37 inLost-$36.51861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No55c45$25 inLost-$24.751631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57a…5cfcbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inWon+$14.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc22…4557backed Yes54c27.6$15 inWon+$12.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645e…d6fbbacked Yes73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d80…6fb1backed Yes66c25.65$17 inWon+$8.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea3…3f02backed Yes61c20$12 inWon+$7.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+99.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes71c17.1$12 inWon+$4.967577.3%58 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.