Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf08b168115e50b001a92fde06c7001bf78e140ff31f7ca28bbcb0a4a6ce6b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 55c | 1,422$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.15 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 76c | 1,193$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.79 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed No | 77c | 1,000$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.66 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 61c | 861.67$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.4 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 33c | 444.4$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.75 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 62c | 322.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 48c | 320.41$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.82 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 315.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.05 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 53c | 225$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 210.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 207.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 62c | 196$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 183.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 52c | 173.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 173.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 36c | 167.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 61c | 165$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 34c | 156.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 143.27$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 106.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 53c | 98.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 90.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 45c | 86.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 38c | 82.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 63c | 80.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 77.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 77.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 73.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 72.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 66.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 37c | 61.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 48c | 58.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 42c | 58.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 39c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 37c | 52.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 53c | 49.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 49.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed No | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 43.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 36c | 43.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fc…9df5backed Yes | 63c | 36.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked Yes | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 74c | 35.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 34.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 62c | 31.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb4…44f9backed No | 47c | 31.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9c…8a0abacked Yes | 66c | 28.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 28.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 28.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed No | 47c | 26.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 25.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 55c | 24.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…70c0backed No | 44c | 24.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 47c | 23.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 52c | 22.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 61c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 63c | 17.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.