NBA · resolved market
Western Conference Finals: Timberwolves vs. Mavericks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf3aa5f187e6fda6d97f435b3f8d55a7cae77eb1c2c34ee31aa4aceebd809740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Twolves, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Mavericks | 77c | 34,125$26,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,930.71 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Twolves | 14c | 33,013$4,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,537.09 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Twolves | 41c | 12,302$5,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,102.6 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…cfc2backed Twolves | 42c | 7,410$3,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,115.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Twolves | 26c | 6,259$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.01 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Mavericks | 49c | 4,000$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Mavericks | 74c | 2,737$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.52 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Twolves | 42c | 1,945$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…6903backed Mavericks | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 74c | 1,687$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.47 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Mavericks | 49c | 1,398$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.9 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe61…9c70backed Mavericks | 39c | 1,262$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Twolves | 14c | 1,051$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…b579backed Mavericks | 39c | 1,001$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…eca9backed Twolves | 44c | 995.45$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Mavericks | 50c | 708.97$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.43 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…31d6backed Mavericks | 57c | 631.56$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Twolves | 11c | 516.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Twolves | 42c | 464.27$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Twolves | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa194…0351backed Twolves | 31c | 323.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…b149backed Twolves | 44c | 244.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2b…8e45backed Twolves | 19c | 236.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…1afcbacked Twolves | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…7e92backed Twolves | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Twolves | 60c | 180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952f…c364backed Twolves | 44c | 161.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Twolves | 31c | 160.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 718 | 23.3%167 W · 551 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Twolves | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b77…196cbacked Twolves | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfe…ffa6backed Twolves | 18c | 135.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Twolves | 27c | 128.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…a1e2backed Mavericks | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…5643backed Twolves | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Twolves | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Twolves | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…1dd6backed Mavericks | 73c | 68.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Mavericks | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…e1cbbacked Mavericks | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…d82dbacked Mavericks | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb91…df9dbacked Twolves | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb030…e721backed Twolves | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.