Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf577d7a66b9527a8352d472a6d1d4fc69525a571f2b06370d29ad186de9276e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 74c | 368.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 54c | 277.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 23c | 252.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 184.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 162.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 8c | 159.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 9c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 56c | 145.22$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 22c | 140.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 7c | 137.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 29c | 134.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 129.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 31c | 117.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 112.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 111.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked No | 11c | 108.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 63c | 80.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 77.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 72.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 68.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 71c | 66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 64.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9598…3be8backed No | 38c | 63.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 58.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 57.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 34c | 54.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 53.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 48c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 52.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 52.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d95…5fe2backed Yes | 25c | 47.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 45.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 68c | 44.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 80c | 39.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…79abbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 39c | 34.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 31c | 34.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 30c | 33.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 77c | 32.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 79c | 30.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 30.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 49c | 27.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 72c | 27.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 44c | 27.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 72c | 21.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 62c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 55c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 16.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…42f2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…488bbacked No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.