Stocks · resolved market
Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $125?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf80a7d00a3c3b08f044dab7c9b6d77711a4090c6e9cba62a5c1636b54824978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 23c | 800$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.95 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…3bf2backed Yes | 47c | 600$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 16c | 554.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 74c | 290$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 40c | 289$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 60c | 278.42$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 44c | 170.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 54c | 167.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…5604backed No | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 135.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 35c | 120.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 52c | 102.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked No | 72c | 93.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 53.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fe…f3bcbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…0029backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 32c | 40.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $125?this page
- Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $105?Yes won
- Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $110?Yes won
- Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $115?Yes won
- Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $120?Yes won
- Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $130?No won
- Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $135?No won
- Will Airbnb (ABNB) finish week of November 10 above $140?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.