MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfa3689c2c61f92575b132d84da852981f6e7e50ef05b6050b90cd7170fb1f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 46,164$23,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,461.23 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 27,225$12,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,831.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Over | 50c | 15,276$7,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,611.3 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc1…b33cbacked Under | 55c | 11,243$6,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,059.36 | 260 | 56.9%148 W · 112 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 10,917$4,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,912.57 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 53c | 3,950$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,836.89 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 2,222$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.34 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 50c | 2,144$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.21 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Under | 52c | 1,900$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 1,535$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.91 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…a246backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 867.31$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 846.28$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.95 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 745.65$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.09 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Under | 52c | 679.84$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 634.27$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.52 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 48c | 576.13$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.96 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 47c | 383.78$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Under | 54c | 351.97$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.51 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 268.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 46c | 262.6$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 60c | 249$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 210.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84d…c08abacked Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Over | 46c | 136.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 42c | 99.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 47c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…e7aabacked Under | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 37.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 48c | 32.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe289…86c5backed Over | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…3516backed Under | 54c | 27.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +6.6wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 47c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Over | 48c | 24.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed Under | 62c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 52c | 23.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 46c | 22.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…c2b6backed Over | 48c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 50c | 21.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 19.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. New York MetsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.