MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87f7ca149eca34ea0f3bc70b9e14fa8c36c3496d6f18ae8de5fbdaad65423fa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 4,446$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 3,497$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.91 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 51c | 2,990$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.96 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 58c | 1,950$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.83 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 1,824$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.32 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 1,118$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.45 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fd…a6c6backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 55c | 795.65$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.04 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 55c | 700.96$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.78 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 59c | 495.97$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.35 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 441.06$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.64 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…a634backed Under | 55c | 391$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 54c | 324.57$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.78 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 53c | 318.05$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 54c | 291.72$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 252$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.19 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 53c | 241.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 236.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 54c | 235.32$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 57c | 227.31$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 220.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 218.66$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…da6bbacked Under | 73c | 217.18$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 57c | 167.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Under | 61c | 161.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 56c | 159.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 158.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under | 54c | 157.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 39c | 154.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 15c | 152.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 43c | 125.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Under | 57c | 124.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…55bbbacked Under | 58c | 117.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 55c | 113.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 52c | 106$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 52c | 99.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 40c | 98.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Over | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Under | 53c | 95.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 57c | 86.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Under | 54c | 80.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…fbedbacked Under | 64c | 72.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 54c | 71.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 67.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 60c | 58.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 51c | 53.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 44c | 49.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 42c | 49.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Over | 47c | 42.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 53c | 39.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 52c | 31.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 58c | 31.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 45c | 29.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 65c | 29.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 38c | 27.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 53c | 26.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Under | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…8124backed Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Under | 54c | 26.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 54c | 26.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 56c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 60c | 22.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 59c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 59c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 62c | 18.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…f27abacked Under | 59c | 18.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 63c | 15.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. New York MetsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.