MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfcaf19c2cbd7e2a1faa47b93edbdafdd57b275aecfcd5eefad5b0abae9674ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 16c | 855.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 295.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Over | 55c | 229.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 10c | 158.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 147.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 117.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 70c | 117$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 39c | 96.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 15c | 87.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 46c | 76.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…4b9abacked Under | 54c | 73.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 27c | 61.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 61.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 46c | 43.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…f1a7backed Over | 57c | 34.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.