MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02a5a11998d8b5acad7c0df42bdd2bf28843dbbd76ced31a4cb351b96cab6f4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78f4…4a4abacked Under | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 46c | 3,362$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.52 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 18c | 2,844$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.26 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 19c | 2,359$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.92 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 19c | 1,966$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.16 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 66c | 740.59$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 19c | 655.26$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.76 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 19c | 655.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.72 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 19c | 655.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.72 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 34c | 638.68$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.53 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 449.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.39 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 67c | 361.02$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 308$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 52c | 230.38$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 18c | 171.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Over | 18c | 168$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.76 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 41c | 163$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 142.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 47c | 115.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 20c | 111.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 69c | 108.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Over | 34c | 101.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 45c | 90.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 18c | 85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 61c | 76.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 47c | 75.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 20c | 72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 19c | 67.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 24c | 53.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Under | 46c | 47.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7916…cb13backed Under | 32c | 43.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 31c | 40.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Under | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 36c | 39.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Under | 27c | 39.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 29c | 38.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 35c | 38.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 30c | 37.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 38c | 37.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 49c | 32.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 54c | 25.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 54c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…bb65backed Under | 51c | 20.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.