MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2140f333d04deb0a36ecf918d8fdbfdbc9efbfa2780547d56d46e5cac19fbc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 44c | 16,250$7,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,099.86 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 6,512$3,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,642.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 2,889$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 2,574$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.72 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 55c | 2,515$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.05 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 56c | 1,924$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.26 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,243$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 59c | 847.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 45c | 548.98$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.94 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 56c | 446.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.79 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 420$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 56c | 381$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.36 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 23c | 245.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.67 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 39c | 181.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 32c | 163.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 20c | 159.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 136.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 115.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 56c | 97.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 88.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 40c | 84.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 42c | 72.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Over | 45c | 70.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…ede2backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Under | 62c | 47.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Under | 59c | 47.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 44c | 46.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Under | 57c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 41c | 41.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4784…3856backed Over | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 31.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 55c | 27.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Over | 51c | 24.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 23.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 45c | 22.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 56c | 22.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.