MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb72472dc646dcfaef09634430f51c6586c085a68a7a833472121ce19dd3655ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 476.97$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.42 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae9…fc54backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 399.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers | 77c | 317.38$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 316.35$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 283.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.32 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 270.87$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Texas Rangers | 75c | 268$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 249$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 244.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.28 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 23c | 235.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked San Diego Padres | 26c | 169.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 165.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 148$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 137.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 121.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 102$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 101.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed San Diego Padres | 23c | 86.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 81.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 74.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 71.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Diego Padres | 26c | 51.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 43.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 43.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 41.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 40.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 473 | 48.8%231 W · 242 L | -22.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 39.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Texas Rangers | 48c | 37.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7916…cb13backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 32.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 29.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 251 | 53%133 W · 118 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 27.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Texas Rangers | 72c | 26.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 77c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.