MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f4f6aaa899936a2699ba28b99b1d469a068d619daf99d52b0909019e2415f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 56c | 10,000$5,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400.55 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 6,273$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,774.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 6,111$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 5,414$2,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,832$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Under | 5c | 1,773$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Under | 47c | 852.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 51c | 470.31$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.47 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Under | 67c | 449.24$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.99 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Under | 59c | 337$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.39 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 330$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.32 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 41c | 292.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.76 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…bdd5backed Under | 60c | 250.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.13 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 234.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.46 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 231.66$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 38c | 158.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 33c | 158$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.86 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 57c | 94.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…fb0cbacked Over | 36c | 93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Under | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 43c | 79.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Over | 41c | 73.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Under | 56c | 65.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 62c | 58.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 70c | 58.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…ba1fbacked Under | 74c | 58.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Under | 50c | 56.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Under | 50c | 45.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Under | 50c | 45.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 48c | 43.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 56c | 43.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 54c | 41.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 33c | 41.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 53c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Under | 50c | 33.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 73c | 33.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed Under | 49c | 29.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 48c | 21.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 66c | 17.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.