UFC · resolved market
UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfd6478d7e4489ef0d992a7c4772bf2daab73a0ff6946f31e2ae3dc3e6e29209
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd747…d4c2backed No | 8c | 2,588$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked No | 3c | 2,043$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc6…6c6cbacked No | 16c | 1,342$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e59…0219backed No | 2c | 1,260$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked No | 15c | 1,026$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 999.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146e…ab0bbacked No | 5c | 888.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…8ad3backed No | 6c | 703.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d72…cbc7backed No | 7c | 515.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 16c | 487.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed Yes | 48c | 452.49$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.37 | 239 | 61.5%147 W · 92 L | +16.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfc…8b83backed No | 21c | 430.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7b…9500backed No | 62c | 419.49$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3a…a25cbacked No | 6c | 418.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b2…c5fdbacked No | 5c | 414$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 401.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 392.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 6c | 342.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed No | 7c | 331.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…93f3backed No | 18c | 286.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…5b5abacked No | 25c | 241.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2d…5ecebacked No | 6c | 238.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 236$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 23c | 221.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed No | 6c | 216.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…209fbacked No | 6c | 215.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked No | 8c | 205.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked No | 20c | 179.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed No | 6c | 174$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…27cdbacked No | 23c | 124.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 71c | 124.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 11c | 112.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed No | 25c | 79.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 43c | 79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc025…b891backed No | 24c | 76.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 72.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…0da7backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…037bbacked Yes | 79c | 60.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 78c | 54.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…6d58backed No | 20c | 51.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…34dbbacked No | 26c | 50.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…304fbacked No | 22c | 46.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8761backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 78c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.