Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbff881cffd53df518479fbb4a8b1863a9a7edfb5081817f503dc2a221032a02d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 580$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 253.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 39c | 242$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 41c | 237.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 220.02$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 179.59$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 130.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 46c | 126.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 118.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 110.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 60c | 99.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 53c | 85.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…5930backed Yes | 39c | 81.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 72.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 70.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 53c | 67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 61.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 56.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 51c | 51.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 62c | 49.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked Yes | 39c | 48.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 47c | 40.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 40.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce3…f7abbacked Yes | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 37.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 36.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 32.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…2a44backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes | 38c | 31.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 30.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 29.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 29.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…36d6backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 53c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 18.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.