MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc074bfe77b47c2a410baa3694f158e3ba8384dfbc71901c87a7617f4dfbeba9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 3,030$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 2,910$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…b22bbacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 1,309$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.82 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,150$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.5 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 833.81$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.11 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 431.65$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.7 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 397.11$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 350$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 287.91$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.03 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 245.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Washington Nationals | 17c | 180.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 132.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 123.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 119.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 96.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 70.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 29.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 18.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.