MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30aa501b25e2ceaa7fd4659ab437820fce6536f43408a88c0479ed5fbc6d50c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 53c | 15,000$7,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,023 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 10,456$4,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,914.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 50c | 5,846$2,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,951.37 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 4,656$2,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,562.09 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Over | 51c | 2,897$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.53 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 2,818$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.63 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 50c | 1,467$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.43 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 50c | 1,260$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 963.23$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.59 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 883.34$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 55c | 863.92$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.85 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 750.17$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.97 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 601.18$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 50c | 421$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 381.23$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 55c | 312.18$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 51c | 311.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 51c | 302.61$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.33 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…21b7backed Under | 52c | 299.53$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…6b56backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 48c | 161.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 52c | 161.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 111.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 51c | 108.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 49c | 105$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 54c | 91.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 55c | 88.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 54c | 88.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 46c | 86.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f5…c385backed Under | 65c | 79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 52c | 66.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Under | 45c | 66.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1572…cb78backed Over | 48c | 61.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 51c | 58.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 41c | 57.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…9c13backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 27.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 48c | 26.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 62c | 25.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…cb59backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.