MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6055b3c86aee9642ba78e8fdba5c4b3d3b9f045c9500ade80715f7c51c60926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 497.61$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.19 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 357.41$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.98 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 335.63$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 243.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 229.24$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Washington Nationals | 35c | 228.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 197.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 183.95$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 130.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 113.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 103.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 96.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 83.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 70.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 38.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 34.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 32.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 32.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Minnesota Twins | 67c | 29.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 28.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Minnesota Twins | 66c | 23.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 22.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.