MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x319f79a3ad49f874f01a3c1b7572384998ba0e3f4b7cab12f71d0808447d0939
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 2,589$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.22 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 1,110$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.89 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 42c | 1,017$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.53 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 59c | 694.17$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.61 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 41c | 609.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 504.15$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 43c | 444.74$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 56c | 349.3$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 59c | 339.45$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 311.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.07 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 41c | 265.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 40c | 207.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 192$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 41c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 69c | 123$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…a25dbacked Under | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 56c | 66.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…0b24backed Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Over | 55c | 47.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 44c | 43.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 70c | 40.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 60c | 31.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 28.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3d27backed Under | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 41c | 25.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 24.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 55c | 24.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb19d…146cbacked Over | 58c | 23.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 56c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 63c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Over | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.