Europa Conference League · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc08fc0f35a6bad65ec2454fd5bacc47dc7147582f6bd94822d6e57dad0757b5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x555f…9525backed Under | 73c | 4,929$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 4,909$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.88 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 70c | 4,368$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 4,065$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.12 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 30c | 2,343$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.89 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Under | 74c | 1,717$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 26c | 1,466$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.31 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 21c | 1,296$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.92 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 30c | 626.04$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.67 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 30c | 299.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Over | 24c | 288.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Under | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 27c | 116.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Over | 14c | 94.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 18c | 87.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 28c | 54.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Under | 69c | 50.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 44.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…5107backed Under | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 78c | 34.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…540abacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…f6d8backed Under | 71c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Under | 76c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 76c | 16.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)SK Brann won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)SK Brann won
- Spread: SK Brann (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.