Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Bochum vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc091908d08c8a5e865155aa125513cd248189875a7a1dedc6f75301b093fde3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 18,372$11,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,876.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 32c | 8,957$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.09 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 46c | 5,300$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 4,435$2,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.69 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 34c | 2,424$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.89 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 2,401$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.61 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 77c | 1,988$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.5 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed Over | 33c | 1,810$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 1,659$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.39 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 1,290$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.9 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 31c | 817$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.27 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 35c | 714.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 23c | 700$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 35c | 686.06$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 68c | 588.7$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 62c | 404.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 32c | 347.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 32c | 341.02$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 38c | 330.61$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 40c | 312.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 40c | 300$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 49c | 277.55$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 21c | 230$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 50c | 142.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…7ad6backed Over | 49c | 136.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Over | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Over | 31c | 91.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 60c | 89.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 67c | 87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Over | 33c | 84.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 49c | 82.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…29c5backed Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 47c | 59.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 42c | 57.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 59c | 50.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…f733backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 80c | 47.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…994cbacked Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Under | 67c | 41.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…e914backed Over | 31c | 38.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…772abacked Over | 33c | 38.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +113%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…2bc6backed Over | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Over | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…328cbacked Over | 61c | 22.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 57c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44e3…855bbacked Under | 56c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452b…372ebacked Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…039fbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Bochum vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-2.5)SC Paderborn 07 won
- VfL Bochum vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- VfL Bochum vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Bochum vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.