Premier League · resolved market
Will Man City vs. Spurs end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c4600be9725f8390239443b4d4b8d03966862dd03de485d82d7d9da2d99d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 79c | 2,226$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.35 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 8c | 1,912$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 18c | 1,466$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.57 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 25c | 960.2$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 675.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 17c | 477.81$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…4dc8backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…9d12backed Yes | 22c | 457.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 19c | 399.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e6…fabfbacked Yes | 24c | 311.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…9e29backed Yes | 20c | 311$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…025fbacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…f190backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 78c | 255.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 79c | 214.28$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 17c | 211.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 21c | 206.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 25c | 200.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…fd64backed Yes | 21c | 105.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…637bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 182 | 32.4%59 W · 123 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…c3e1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…0bf2backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…a328backed Yes | 19c | 94.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…15f6backed Yes | 22c | 88.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe43…c5b1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19e…8eaabacked No | 80c | 26.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 77c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 80c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…5783backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Man City vs. Spurs end in a draw?this page
- Will Man City win on 2024-11-23?No won
- Will Spurs win on 2024-11-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.