Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0c46ad71180d17fb8cb4a89384cfd994e0fd8fdc0bab3aabc7a33c66ac84ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 34c | 622.77$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.35 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 299.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.13 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 233.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 210.65$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 208.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 144.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 143.34$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 137.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 137.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 40c | 136.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 123.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 114.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 112.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 109.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 45c | 101.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 97.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 92.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 87.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 74.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 34c | 73.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 70.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 68.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 57.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 50c | 55.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 41c | 53.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 69c | 53.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 65c | 50.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 36c | 44.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 28c | 37.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 67c | 34.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 32.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 30.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 26.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 66c | 23.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 18.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b2…fb81backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.