TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,905 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09b4…e56dbacked No52c630.66$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.7872042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes45c450.16$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6129345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No49c438$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.771649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb902…06d8backed Yes49c410.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007159.2%42 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes59c339.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes64c307$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2422740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes54c299.85$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.841,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14db…7cafbacked No39c255.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.534940.8%20 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes59c248.11$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5818945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No48c245.32$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.61,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No39c214.2$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.0345253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c203.45$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No36c203.23$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8124546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes46c171.84$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c163.23$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.835,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c155$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.545,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes54c153.24$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.991,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes59c151.98$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes62c150$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No38c143.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.264,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c136$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.064,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b35…bb20backed Yes67c130.21$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.148263.4%52 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No40c130.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.282,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No26c128.47$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.714,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8e…cc2bbacked No54c104.58$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.111020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes54c98.28$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.071,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No54c94.08$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4633746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No20c92.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.241,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes46c87.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402748.1%13 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-30.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes73c86.72$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.469047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes50c84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4276936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No40c81.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.644,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadda…684cbacked No37c81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.038580%68 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407655.3%42 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No34c72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.524,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes48c68.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.92250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa687…53a5backed Yes56c68.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.964632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No18c68.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.641,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No66c65.98$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6624141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes74c65.35$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.513560%21 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed No51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.661249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed No23c58.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6110345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes48c58.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9718043.3%78 W · 102 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No39c56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.042,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No51c53.92$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5817633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked No44c51.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0637570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No49c46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5421370.9%151 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No52c44.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6546457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes46c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7846148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No32c41.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.41,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8c…23c8backed No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.757762.3%48 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.219965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes48c39.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.872,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No41c39.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2660550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No30c38.68$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1417457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes49c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6272837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x034a…0469backed Yes48c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.245733.3%19 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x018a…9522backed No54c37.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.494560%27 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No34c37.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7413337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4947…a7b3backed No41c36.58$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0b…17a4backed Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No42c32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.581,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No41c32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.889153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes62c31.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.815948.4%77 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes66c31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5724542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x822f…c545backed Yes62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-70.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe961…fc41backed Yes60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+40.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.113340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd590…dd98backed Yes48c29.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No54c29.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.611,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes66c28.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0416440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x599c…e29bbacked Yes50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.972842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe584…9157backed Yes47c26.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4124531%76 W · 169 L-1.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes57c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.742,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.511344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c24.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.19,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes47c23.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9922849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes67c22.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.015756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No51c22.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.83,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.124450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes70c21.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…36cdbacked No48c20.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.662548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes62c17.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.641,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd209…f521backed Yes67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.