Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8bd945d32529128262becab3b91978f4c7a112f23b58e4a6c106dc545de2070
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 52c | 630.66$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.78 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 45c | 450.16$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.61 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 49c | 438$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 49c | 410.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 339.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 64c | 307$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 299.85$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.84 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 39c | 255.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.53 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 59c | 248.11$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 48c | 245.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 39c | 214.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.03 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 203.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 36c | 203.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.81 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 171.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 163.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 155$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 153.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 151.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 143.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 136$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 67c | 130.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 40c | 130.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 128.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…cc2bbacked No | 54c | 104.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 54c | 98.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 94.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 20c | 92.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 46c | 87.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 73c | 86.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 81.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 37c | 81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 48c | 68.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 56c | 68.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 68.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 66c | 65.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 74c | 65.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 23c | 58.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 48c | 58.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 51c | 53.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 44c | 51.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 49c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 52c | 44.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 32c | 41.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 39.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 41c | 39.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 30c | 38.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 54c | 37.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 34c | 37.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…a7b3backed No | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…17a4backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 62c | 31.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 66c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…c545backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…fc41backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…dd98backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 29.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 47c | 26.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 24.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 47c | 23.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked No | 48c | 20.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 17.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…f521backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.