Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Fokina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0d4118f43f1e89d991243bd2f84a7ca8214b0f992abb6664ad1deb4b5e3a1be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fokinaof Auger-Aliassime, Fokina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Fokina | 50c | 1,929$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.36 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Auger-Aliassime | 48c | 1,607$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.66 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 57c | 600.6$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.34 | 345 | 55.1%190 W · 155 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Auger-Aliassime | 49c | 559.84$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.42 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fokina | 54c | 497$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.87 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…2562backed Fokina | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Auger-Aliassime | 60c | 401.7$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.02 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Auger-Aliassime | 60c | 360$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.15 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Fokina | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fokina | 60c | 325.77$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.39 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Fokina | 43c | 290.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.7 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Fokina | 43c | 273.71$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.01 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Auger-Aliassime | 54c | 252.5$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.38 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b2…ee81backed Fokina | 44c | 213.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Fokina | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 256 | 33.6%86 W · 170 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7d3dbacked Fokina | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…c915backed Fokina | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 208 | 46.2%96 W · 112 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Auger-Aliassime | 57c | 192.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Fokina | 34c | 153.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…434abacked Fokina | 43c | 149.91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Auger-Aliassime | 54c | 147.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Auger-Aliassime | 59c | 145.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…3080backed Fokina | 65c | 113.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 46c | 104.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Fokina | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Fokina | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Fokina | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…79e0backed Auger-Aliassime | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 58.6%106 W · 75 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fokina | 42c | 80.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…c2fcbacked Auger-Aliassime | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Fokina | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Fokina | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a0…ff28backed Auger-Aliassime | 57c | 59.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Fokina | 59c | 52.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -18.8wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fokina | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fokina | 43c | 49.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Fokina | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Fokinathis page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Set 2 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs FokinaAuger-Aliassime won
- Set 3 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs FokinaAuger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)Fokina won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Fokina (+2.5)Fokina won
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-2.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+2.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaFelix Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.