Tennis · resolved market
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0012a5b607c4b35a7d209aa2d01b93f9c30a9903a4955edf68b512c8e76e8677
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 6,306$1,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.83 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 5,165$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.18 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 4,000$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 2,641$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.82 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,900$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 1,685$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.09 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 32c | 1,270$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 999.99$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.68 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 599.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 492.85$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.86 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 257.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over 3.5 | 61c | 256.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 240$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0da…c8febacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 228.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…7c7dbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 216.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 161.54$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 138.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 3.5 | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…768ebacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 102.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 100.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 109 | 65.1%71 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over 3.5 | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 94.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 79.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 3.5 | 36c | 79.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 36.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over 3.5 | 71c | 29.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…9283backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Over 3.5 | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 217 | 59.4%129 W · 88 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs FokinaFokina won
- Set 2 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs FokinaAuger-Aliassime won
- Set 3 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs FokinaAuger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)Fokina won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Fokina (+2.5)Fokina won
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-2.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+2.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaFelix Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.