Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Fokina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cd0d5a2cd5a438da402b8785d4d22f56f87e40c005460b6d7e8099adc03136e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Fokina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf93b…0acbbacked Auger-Aliassime | 49c | 1,017$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe28c…ffb3backed Fokina | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…ab19backed Fokina | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fokina | 52c | 593.16$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.63 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…939ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 48c | 564.2$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.2 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Fokina | 52c | 511.19$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.92 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Fokina | 52c | 508.68$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.98 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…cabebacked Auger-Aliassime | 46c | 327.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Fokina | 52c | 324.05$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.35 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Auger-Aliassime | 42c | 283.58$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.84 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Fokina | 57c | 222.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3e…061cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 48c | 197.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Fokina | 68c | 196.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.76 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…17c3backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Fokina | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Fokina | 46c | 156.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Fokina | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 580 | 48.4%281 W · 299 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fokina | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…3c18backed Auger-Aliassime | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…c2fcbacked Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Fokina | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Auger-Aliassime | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Fokina | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Fokina | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Fokina | 59c | 68.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a0…ff28backed Fokina | 61c | 65.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Fokina | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Fokina | 54c | 57.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -18.8wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6e…6dc3backed Fokina | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Fokina | 46c | 51.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Fokina | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…a216backed Fokina | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…0816backed Auger-Aliassime | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Fokina | 47c | 38.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Fokina | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fokina | 53c | 29.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…08fabacked Auger-Aliassime | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…0917backed Fokina | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Fokinathis page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs FokinaFokina won
- Set 3 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs FokinaAuger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)Fokina won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Fokina (+2.5)Fokina won
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Fokina (-2.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+2.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaFelix Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.