Chess · resolved market
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0ee6c16a94b2721e2838980c818fda85a16960e5a537026465607f75c538a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a74…312fbacked Yes | 30c | 8,153$2,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed No | 73c | 3,200$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 67c | 3,096$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.53 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 31c | 2,375$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 68c | 2,185$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.21 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes | 4c | 2,070$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…b62ebacked No | 74c | 1,064$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 20c | 650$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 448$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 71c | 438.59$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 406.89$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 74c | 303.67$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.83 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…727fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Yes | 25c | 199.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 167.96$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Yes | 29c | 160.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 40c | 124.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…5874backed Yes | 29c | 111.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…c7b3backed No | 63c | 108.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…b7bebacked No | 37c | 99.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 73c | 91.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…6fb4backed Yes | 39c | 60.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…0be0backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 72c | 37.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Yes | 63c | 32.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 63c | 22.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…6946backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805d…9df5backed No | 72c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…8c92backed No | 71c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?this page
- Will Matthias Bluebaum vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Matthias Bluebaum win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.