MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0fb02018cd50153f9c8ed48ef551a009a4295ce4783a424225c71fdb72843e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 6,130$2,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Over | 45c | 5,170$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.69 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 4,756$2,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,614.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 44c | 4,100$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 3,704$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 56c | 2,115$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 50c | 1,621$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.53 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,175$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 56c | 980.09$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 817.34$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 56c | 700$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 44c | 357$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 209.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 181.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 44c | 144$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 44c | 127.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 112.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 109.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 106$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 33c | 84.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 56c | 50.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 44.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 36c | 38.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 56c | 35.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…1196backed Under | 45c | 33.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 30.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 38c | 29.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe7…24a0backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.