MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe2627d40ad9558eefa980fba30baf875cdfe13fabf131d1839995877688228f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 36c | 5,577$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 5,376$3,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 45c | 2,516$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.36 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 58c | 709.59$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.8 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 449.04$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 62c | 347.65$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 317.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Under | 36c | 261.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 217.44$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 217.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 181.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 55c | 144$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 55c | 114$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Over | 50c | 77.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Over | 50c | 77.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6aa5backed Over | 50c | 77.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 50c | 63.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 55c | 56.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…7b9abacked Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 73c | 30.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 53c | 21.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.