MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4329110acd9ded4e508c85d5190f57e7710cbed90855b21ed627b37179be68c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 2,760$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 2,186$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 1,440$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.79 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Detroit Tigers | 42c | 821.01$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.82 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Detroit Tigers | 20c | 700$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers | 47c | 524.89$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 466.81$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.06 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 352$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 248$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Detroit Tigers | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 186.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 185$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 41c | 120.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 103$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Detroit Tigers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Kansas City Royals | 56c | 99.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 81.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Detroit Tigers | 23c | 75.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Detroit Tigers | 41c | 57.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 43.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 34.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Kansas City Royals | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…4bf8backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 30.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Kansas City Royals | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 26.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.